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UTMB Ballot Calculator

The UTMB Ballot Chance Calculator is a tool designed for trail and ultrarunners aiming to understand their odds of getting selected for UTMB races like UTMB, CCC, and OCC.

Based on real-world data from the previous years, it estimates your chances of selection depending on the number of Running Stones you hold, how many years you’ve applied, and the current number of applicants and available bibs.

Please estimate applicants based on your race type and past year’s data.

UTMB Ballot Chance Calculator

1st Year 2nd Year (after 1 failed attempt) 3rd Year (after 2 failed attempts)

📊 Based on previous editions UTMB data
🎯 Uses a real-world probability curve and adjusts dynamically for any year’s bib/applicant ratio.
❤️ Loyalty included: double chance in 2nd year. There is no guaranteed entry but at least you get an estimate 🙂

🔗 Source: UTMB 2024 Info
Utmb 2015

How do I use the calculator?

  1. Enter how many Running Stones you currently have (you can earn these by finishing UTMB World Series races).
  2. Select the year you’re applying — whether it’s your first, second, or third attempt.
  3. Adjust the number of total applicants and bibs (default numbers are prefilled using previous years data, but you can update the tool for future projections – like increasing the number of participants).
  4. Click “Calculate My Chance” and the tool will display your estimated selection percentage.

Does the calculator guarantee accuracy?

No tool can guarantee exact lottery results, but this calculator is built on publicly available 2023 data and applies a proportional scaling formula to provide clear estimates.

Can I improve my odds of getting selected?

Yes! Here’s how:

  • Earn more Running Stones by completing UTMB World Series events
  • Apply multiple years to benefit from the loyalty system
  • Target races (like CCC or OCC) with slightly better bib-to-applicant ratios