The UTMB Ballot Chance Calculator is a tool designed for trail and ultrarunners aiming to understand their odds of getting selected for UTMB races like UTMB, CCC, and OCC.
Based on real-world data from the previous years, it estimates your chances of selection depending on the number of Running Stones you hold, how many years you’ve applied, and the current number of applicants and available bibs.
Please estimate applicants based on your race type and past year’s data.
UTMB Entry Chance Calculator (2025 System)
📊 Based on UTMB 2025 qualification rules
🎯 Each Running Stone = 1 draw entry. Stones can accumulate across years but there’s no “loyalty multiplier”.
🪙 Probability reflects bibs-to-total-stones ratio.
🔗 Source: UTMB Official Entry Rules
🎯 Each Running Stone = 1 draw entry. Stones can accumulate across years but there’s no “loyalty multiplier”.
🪙 Probability reflects bibs-to-total-stones ratio.
🔗 Source: UTMB Official Entry Rules
How do I use the calculator?
- Enter how many Running Stones you currently have (you can earn these by finishing UTMB World Series races).
- Select the year you’re applying — whether it’s your first, second, or third attempt.
- Adjust the number of total applicants and bibs (default numbers are prefilled using previous years data, but you can update the tool for future projections – like increasing the number of participants).
- Click “Calculate My Chance” and the tool will display your estimated selection percentage.
Does the calculator guarantee accuracy?
No tool can guarantee exact lottery results, but this calculator is built on publicly available 2023 data and applies a proportional scaling formula to provide clear estimates.
Can I improve my odds of getting selected?
Yes! Here’s how:
- Earn more Running Stones by completing UTMB World Series events
- Apply multiple years to benefit from the loyalty system
- Target races (like CCC or OCC) with slightly better bib-to-applicant ratios